What moved
One lab now holds the AI frontier alone
Claude Fable 5.2 scores 174.2 on the Epoch Capabilities Index, 5.4 points above the previous best, and no other lab’s model overlaps it. At the end of September three labs were tied at the top. The lead over the best Chinese model widened 5.1 points, to 12.2. A single leader shifts negotiating leverage to the vendor. See the series.
Leader move: Within 90 days, test your most demanding workload on the new leader and on a second lab’s best model, and keep prompts, evaluations and contracts portable between them.
ChatGPT’s share of AI referrals falls to half
ChatGPT sent 51.03% of AI chatbot referrals to websites in October, down 29.44 points from 80.47% in September. Google Gemini sent 29.22% and Perplexity 15.22%. These figures measure clicks to websites, not usage, and one month can reflect changes in how assistants link out, but the referral mix behind your AI-driven traffic is shifting. See the series.
Leader move: Split AI referrals by assistant in your analytics this month, and check how your key pages appear in Gemini and Perplexity answers, not only ChatGPT.
Cloud AI spending reaches $615.4 billion a year
Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta paid $615.4 billion for property and equipment over the four quarters to September, up 20.5% from $510.7 billion a quarter earlier. Amazon alone accounts for $215.2 billion. That spending supports more capacity and lower prices ahead, and raises the pressure on providers to fill it. See the series.
Leader move: Use the capacity build-out in your next renewal: ask for price step-downs and committed-spend terms that track falling model prices.
US business AI use slips to 24.2%
The Census Bureau’s survey for the two weeks to November 1 found 24.2% of US businesses using AI, down 0.4 points, and the share planning to use it fell 1.0 point to 27.6%. One round is not a trend. See the series.
Leader move: Benchmark your adoption against your sector, not the national line, and treat a second fall as a cue to review where pilots are stalling.
What to watch
- The next Census survey round: a second consecutive fall in business AI use would signal a stall.
- November’s chatbot referral data, which will show whether ChatGPT’s October fall holds.
- New frontier releases from other labs, which could restore a tie at the top of Epoch AI’s index.
- December 1, 2026, Google’s earliest shutdown date for Gemini 2.5 Pro and Gemini 2.5 Flash, and December 2, 2026, when the EU AI Act requires existing generative AI systems to mark their outputs.
About the curator & AI disclosure
Curated by Luciano Ayres
Luciano Ayres is Director of Artificial Intelligence at ArcTouch, with more than 20 years of experience in software and technology leadership and specialized studies in deep learning. Connect with him on LinkedIn.
AI-generated briefing. This edition was produced through an automated AI research and writing workflow curated by Luciano Ayres. Every figure links to its source for independent verification; summaries and analysis may contain errors and do not replace professional due diligence.